Chapter 7 The Political Flap

1600 Zulu, Wednesday, May 16, 1984, Agency Headquarters

As the Green Fox team gathers in the SCIF conference room for another of Jackson Spruell’s flaps Jackson waits impatiently, not with his usual quiet and reserved demeanor. As they wait Jason whispers to David. “How come you didn’t tell me about Mary Sue Lee?”

“Actually I was supposed to. Nancy thinks she is a good match for you and asked me to introduce you but I hadn’t gotten around to it.”

“Great David, but no matter. I met her at the hearing and we took the Metro to Roslyn together. She’s a stone fox, as you would say, and I love her southern accent. I’ve asked her to go jogging and for coffee afterward this weekend.”

“Hope it leads to something for your sake. You have been single a long time. I tell you I have never been as happy as I have since I married Nancy. Oh, I think Jackson is ready to start the meeting.”

Jackson rises from his chair and speaks in his usual unemotional manner, no longer seeming impatient. "I need to make you all aware the President and his National Security Council have been working secretly on a plan to reduce our forces in Europe. The NSC feels the cold war has warmed enough after all these years that we can reduce forces without tempting the Soviets to do anything stupid. They believe we can stockpile equipment in Europe and if a crisis emerges we can quickly fly in more manpower. Keeping these personnel in the US will save millions every year and with the President's budget problems that's an attractive option. The President thinks a force reduction by the US may reduce tensions with the Soviets and make his nuclear force reduction talks move faster. The NSC also hopes by reducing our forces in Europe it will encourage the European NATO countries to increase investments in their defense forces.”

David interjects: "That totally makes sense. There haven’t been any provocative moves by the Soviets in several years."

"Well, things just changed. We picked up intel indicating the Poles and East Germans are planning a joint military exercise of considerable size near East Germany's border with West Germany. If they do it puts the President's plan in jeopardy because it would be the wrong signal to both the Soviets and our NATO allies."

 "Why is this a crisis for our team?" asked David.

"Two questions are bugging the NSC and they want us to provide answers. First, the NSC wants to know if these exercises were ordered by the Soviets or hatched up by the Poles or East Germans on their own. And, whoever ordered the exercise, what is the rationale for such a provocative move and why now? Could it be a move to disrupt the negotiations on nuclear forces reduction?"

"What intelligence will we have access to in order to seek answers to these questions Jackson?"

"The Green Fox team has been given need-to-know for all intelligence collections we have on the Warsaw Pact nations, including all HUMINT, COMINT, ELINT, and IMINT from Poland and East Germany for the past six weeks and all new intel we collect until the questions are resolved."

"That's an enormous amount of data the team must evaluate."

"Yes, so the first thing I expect this team to do is to develop a plan of attack. I want to know what you will look for first as the most likely indicators we need for answering these questions and I want to know how the team will organize to review the intel we have. Finally, if you need new software developed to automate the review of any of the intel I need to know so I can arrange for cleared programmers to be added to the team."

 After letting these orders sink in Jackson adds, "I need your plan in 48 hours because the Director has to report to the NSC on our status in the afternoon the day after tomorrow."

David thinks for a moment and then replies: "Before you leave there is one programming need I can see immediately. We’ll need a programmer to build an algorithm to perform keyword searches of all recent COMINT* between Soviet command centers and both military and political command centers in Poland and East Germany. And the COMINT between command centers of Poland and East Germany. Also, it will help if we have access to COMINT from several months ago so we can look for any recent changes in the amount of communications. The programmer needs to be fluent in Polish, German and Russian if possible. If not the team can help with the keyword selection."

"I'll work on getting the team a programmer David while you are developing the rest of your plan."

"One last question Jackson, is there any possibility these East European military exercises are connected with the NSC's plan to reduce forces in Europe?" asks Jason Speare.

"I don't think so, Jason. The NSC plan is pretty close hold. No one outside the NSC was read into the plan. Furthermore, I think the Soviets and the Warsaw Pact nations would welcome a reduction in our European forces. If they knew what we are planning I think they would hold off on any provocative moves until the reduction finished. Ok then, I’ll leave the team to get to work. If you have any other questions or find you need any more resources just ask."

*COMINT is an acronym for communications intelligence