Chapter 9 Operation Fox Trot

1600 Zulu, Friday, May 18, 1984, Agency Headquarters

Jackson Spruell asks David to join him in the SCIF and as soon as the door closes says, “Ok David, give me a summary of your plans and tell me what the Director can tell the NSC tomorrow.”

 “We have a three-step plan Jackson, the first step, which is already underway, is to define the scope of the intelligence data we need to analyze to determine if the Soviets ordered the joint military exercises. Then we’ll estimate the time it is likely to take to analyze the data, develop a report and review the report with Agency management. The second step is to carry out the analysis and the last step is to prepare the report, review it and close out this task team’s work with whatever documentation is required.”

“The Director is going to need more than that David. I expect he will have to give the NSC a definitive schedule of when we expect to complete a preliminary assessment and when we will have a final report. I understand you haven’t completed your estimate but give me your best guesses. And I expect we’ll be held to those dates.”

“Ok, I estimate it’ll take the team three months to complete a preliminary report and a month to complete a final report. Your guess as to how long it will take to get Agency sign off on the final report is better than mine but I’m guessing it’ll take four and a half to five months to get to a signed off final report. The reason it’ll take that long is the programmer estimates it’ll take two to three weeks to write the code we need to analyze the COMMINT and HUMINT.  In my experience, it takes twice as long as programmers estimate so it’ll be a month before we have useful software. Then it’ll take about a month to analyze the COMMINT because most of it will have to be decrypted first and that takes time. Finally, I doubt we can complete the analysis of the HUMINT in less than two months because most of it will have to be entered into digital databases. Although we are transitioning to digital reports the transition is going slowly because it’s dependent on the installation of secure comms at each embassy. That’s still going slowly due to budget limitations as you know.”

“That’s not going to satisfy the Director or the NSC David. Here is what we’re going to do. I’ll find you two more programmers and you work them together or in three shifts; whatever it takes to get the code completed in two weeks. Then you divide the COMMINT into two categories. The data most likely to give us an answer quickly and the rest that needs to be analyzed to ensure we’ve covered everything. Similarly, divide the HUMINT into what is already digitized and the rest to be digitized to be complete. I want you to develop a detailed schedule that gets us a preliminary assessment in six weeks based on the most promising COMMINT and the HUMINT that’s already digitized. The preliminary report need not be more than some charts summarizing what’s been analyzed and what the analysis suggests. What about the SIGINT and IMINT David? Do you have a plan for analyzing those data?”

“I don’t think it’s worthwhile analyzing the SIGINT or IMINT* because those data are extremely unlikely to give us definitive answers as to the intent of the exercises or who ordered them. More likely we would find a bunch of curious events that just lead to speculation.”

“What about SIGINT from Field Station Berlin; the secret place called Devil’s Mountain? Don’t they keep track of the Russian and East German Armies in East Germany?”

“Yes, but the East Germans know Field Station Berlin is monitoring them. They even send holiday greetings to FSB so I doubt they would be careless with communications they know will be intercepted. FSB intercepts will tell us the movements of any units in the planned exercises but not the information we want.”

“Alright, I trust your judgment David. Now, do you understand what I want? Oh, I also want a weekly status report and let’s call this effort Operation Fox Trot.”

 “Yes, I understand Jackson. If it can be done this team will do it. One last thing, it may be helpful if we have the details on the intelligence that led the NSC to believe there will be joint military exercises in East Germany.”

“I agree David. The intelligence didn’t come from our Agency so I’ll make sure the Director asks for the details from the NSC. Finally, report to me weekly at 1600 Zulu,”

*SIGINT is signals intelligence; IMINT is image intelligence

1600 Zulu, Tuesday, May 22, 1984, Agency Headquarters

When David gets to his office he finds a note from Jackson saying he is to come immediately to the SCIF. When he enters the SCIF Jackson is already there sipping a cup of coffee and acting agitated rather than like his normal calm self. “Good, you’re finally here David, sit down and brace yourself. We’ve got some unexpected changes to Operation Fox Trot. The Director met with the NSC and it didn't go smoothly.”

“What happened?”

“Just before the Director left for the NSC meeting he got a private query from British intelligence saying MI6 has received information suggesting the Poles and East Germans are planning joint military exercises and they asked if we can corroborate their intelligence. They said they can’t give him the source of the intel and he got the impression they haven’t properly vetted the source. He played the dunce and told them he would check and get back to them in a day or two. When he reported this to the NSC and asked for all the details on the source that informed the NSC the meeting turned chaotic. I’ll give you the short form leaving out the frustration of the Director and he said - she said details. It turns out our intel came directly to someone in the State Department, who informed the Secretary, who in turn informed the President. The Secretary asked the President to not reveal the source of the intelligence because she is afraid of compromising the source. At least that is what she told the President.”

Jackson pauses for a moment and then continues:  “When the other members of the NSC learned the British have the same intel and also from an unknown source they became skeptical. The consensus, except for the Secretary of State and the President, is if neither of the sources is vetted properly then it’s most likely we and the Brits are being played. Several NSC members suspect someone is trying to provoke us and the Brits into a move useful for political advantage to the Warsaw Pact. This group wants us to alert W. Germany and recommend they ignore any exercises if indeed they do occur. Of course, the Director counseled against informing the W. Germans until we have confirmed the intelligence because he believes their government is full of leaks to the Warsaw Pact. The Director said with all the bickering and uncertainty the President became angry and laid down some demands, which change the direction of Fox Trot.”

“Never a dull moment,” interjects David. “What are we directed to do now?”

“Let me explain what the President demanded. First, the President directed the Secretary of State to give us every detail they have on their special intel source now and in the future. Second, we are not to interfere with State’s source or to share the details with other members of the NSC at this time. Third, we are to attempt to learn if the Brit’s source is the same as State’s. Fourth, we are to redirect Operation Fox Trot to first validate joint exercises are actually being planned and if they are then we are to determine if the Soviets ordered the exercises.”

David thinks a moment and says: “Let’s ask Jason to join us. Three heads are better than one for quickly figuring out both how to redirect Fox Trot and Jason is good at this type of thinking.”

“Good idea David.”

David leaves the SCIF and brings Jason back with him. He summarizes what Jackson told him and says they need to quickly replan Fox Trot. Jason speaks up saying: “Validating exercises are going to take place is best accomplished by examining IMINT and SIGINT, which we were going to ignore. Now, we need to immediately task all IMINT and SIGINT resources covering Eastern Europe to focus on Polish and East German military units. Field Station Berlin should know the location of these units. If any of them are preparing for joint exercises or wanting us to believe there will be exercises then movements of equipment and increased communications should be collectible. It also means we will need a baseline from this time a year ago to compare against.”

“I agree, Jason, Jackson can you initiate tasking with enough priority to ensure it starts immediately? Oh, and do we have a designated contact at State for getting the details on their intel source?”

Jackson responds: “Yes, I’ll take care of the tasking request for IMINT and SIGINT. And I have already asked the Director to ask the Secretary of State who we should work with at State. I expect an answer before lunch. David, when we have a name will you follow up with State to get the details on their source?”

“Most definitely, and I think we should also task our HUMINT* assets in Poland and East Germany to assess any changes or new activities in the military units there. They may have already spotted activities leading up to joint exercises.”

“Ah yes David, I’ll initiate that tasking also. It’s a shame our HUNINT assets in Eastern Europe are at a low compared to a few years ago.”

“It sure is,” interjects Jason, “when Leon Myers was alive he would have likely already picked up the intel from his assets. His death is the primary reason we have fewer reliable assets there today.”

“You are right Jason, but we have to work with what we have. Well, I’ll get busy with the tasking and leave you and David to get back to work on the redirected plan for Fox Trot.”

As soon as Jackson is out of the room David turns to Jason: “Typical, no plan seems to get finished without being changed. But it never gets dull around here. Hey before we get started tell me about your date with Mary Sue.”

“It was just a jog together and coffee after.  She’s a gorgeous gal and I enjoyed being with her so I asked her out again this coming Saturday. I am going to take it slow because we have to keep a good relationship with her. I don’t want to screw it up for the Agency, and even more for myself.”

“Sounds promising Jason. Let’s get back to work.”

*HUMINT is intelligence collected by humans, i.e. spies.